STARTING FROM THE WRONG ASSUMPTIONS CAN ONLY PRODUCE THE WRONG SCENARIOS
By Mauro Marturano
...(or missing ones) 😂
Let me give 2 examples to make this clear.
First example: the war in Ukraine.
According to my assumptions, we necessarily have to end up cannibalizing Europe. Because that's necessary for the sustainability of the system (the system can keep working only if someone still up on the tower falls).
For a lot of you, there's no problem at all with fiat money (a lot of you don't even know what that is or what its implications for your life are). So for a lot of you, there's no cannibalization problem. No sustainability problem. And therefore nobody needs to fall off the tower.
So while I say there are in fact 2 possible scenarios (a real war, or a localized event, to which I give almost the entire probability), for a lot of you there are 3 (peace, real war, or an event), and you give the first one the widest odds.
You see 3 scenarios only because you don't know what I wrote above. If you had clearly understood what I wrote above, your first scenario wouldn't exist. And indeed... it's just your illusion.
Second example: holding euros vs crypto.
There's a lot of confusion on this topic, obviously. Confusion that is, of course, deliberate, built on purpose. But let's stick to your/my reasoning.
For a lot of you, as written above, there's no problem with the euro at all.
When I lay out the scenarios on this issue, I say:
Whoever keeps their euros will lose at least 75% of the value of their savings from here on.
Whoever buys crypto and gets it wrong will lose 100% of what they put into crypto.
Whoever buys crypto and gets it right/gets lucky will be much better off than today.
When you read this, a lot of you still start from the assumption that my scenario 1 doesn't exist. And so you say: between
risking losing everything (my scenario 2), even though there's a chance it goes well, and keeping your euros, better to keep the euros.
Too bad that keeping the euros means taking on a guaranteed risk of losing at least 75% from today onward.
As you can see, and above all as you will see 😂, starting from the wrong assumptions leads you to make WRONG reasoning, in which scenarios are missing, or scenarios are present for no reason in your favor 😂, scenarios you built for yourselves in your own favor 😂.